NFL Picks - Wild Card Playoffs

by AmplifiedtoRock

KTND NFL PICKS STANDINGS

Aaron the Brain – 61-42

AmplifiedtoRock – 55-48

Nick Gator – 49-54

Corey Santiago – 48-55

The NFL’s postseason has arrived and, though our picks competition continues, we figured you needed a bit more than our names and who we’re going with.  To this end, we give you Aaron the Brain’s analysis of each of this weekend’s four NFL Wild Card playoff games.  After you read his analysis, you may figure out why he’s winning.  You’ll also find our picks.

Kansas City (11-5) @ Indianapolis (11-5)

Current Spread: Indianapolis -1.5

These two teams met in Arrowhead in Week 16, and after a score by the Chiefs on the opening drive of the game, the rest of the game was dominated by the Colts. In that game, not only did the Chiefs turn the ball over 4 times to the Colts' 0, but KC also missed a FG. This is interesting, because KC led the AFC (2nd in the NFL) in turnover margin on the season. It isn't a complete aberration, though, as the Colts were 2nd in the conference in TO margin. I would expect this game to be much closer as far as turnover margin, which should make for a closer game in general.

All things being equal, I believe KC actually has a slight edge. Despite Andrew Luck already on the edge of being elite, neither of these teams have a particularly prolific passing game, and while neither team is great at stopping the run, the Chiefs have been far more effective at running the ball, so look for Jamal Charles to have a big game. Of course if the game is close, which I expect it will be, I won't be surprised if Andrew Luck outplays Alex Smith with the game on the line.

Prediction: Kansas City 24 Indianapolis 23

New Orleans (11-5) @ Philadelphia (10-6)

Spread: Philadelphia -2.5

The Eagles have been arguably the hottest team in the league, winning 7 of their last 8 games. Aside from a blip a couple weeks ago against Minnesota, Philly has been rolling heading into the playoffs. The Saints, on the other hand, went from challenging for home-field throughout the playoffs to needing to win in Week 17 just to make the postseason.

The Eagles gained more yards per play than any team not quarterbacked by Peyton Manning this season, and they didn’t just do it by running the ball for a staggering 5.1 yards per carry. They also led the league in yards per pass attempt at 8.7. They’ve been especially good over the past two months when they’ve scored a whopping 33.25 points per game over their last 8. The Eagles have also been one of the best rush defenses in the league, but their weakness is their pass defense. Philly has given up more passing yards per game this season. That’s where New Orleans will have a chance to stay in this one. Drew Brees should have every opportunity to shred the Eagles’ suspect secondary since the Eagles have one of the worst pass rushes in the league, and New Orleans has one of the lowest sacks allowed percentages in the league. Expect a shootout, and in a shootout I’m going with Brees.

Prediction: Saints 38 Eagles 34

San Diego (9-7) @ Cincinnati (11-5)

Spread: Cincinnati -7

San Diego was a long shot to make the playoffs going into last weekend, but after a hard fought win and a good amount of luck, they find themselves in the tournament with nothing to lose. The Bengals had a great regular season, and finished strong winning 5 of their last 6. One of those wins was a 17-10 win in San Diego back in Week 13. In what was mostly a defensive struggle, the Bengals did a better job of running the ball, but it was a blown coverage by San Diego's secondary that allowed AJ Green an easy TD that was ultimately the difference in the game.

In the first game, San Diego moved the ball decently well, but struggled to put points on the board due to 3 turnovers, which was uncharacteristic for a team that turned the ball over just 21 times all season. However, it wasn't uncharacteristic of a Cincinnati defense that forced 31 turnovers over the course of the season. Despite holding Cincinnati to just 17 points on 354 yards in their first meeting, San Diego was actually last in the AFC in yards allowed per play this season, and Cincinnati has been on a scoring tear of late. The Bengals have averaged 37 points per game over their last 4 since playing the Chargers. Meanwhile, the Chargers have averaged over 29 a game since that game as well. Expect more scoring in this one, but expect the Bengals to offer more resistance than the Chargers. I don't think they'll cover, but I'm taking the Bengals.

Prediction: Cincinnati 31 San Diego 28

San Francisco (12-4) @ Green Bay (8-7-1)

Spread: San Francisco -2.5

The Niners are playing their best football of the season coming into the playoffs. They've won 6 in a row, outscoring their opponents by an average of 26.5 to 15.7 over that span. Green Bay sputtered with Aaron Rodgers out, but survived until his Week 17 comeback in which they beat the Bears to secure their playoff spot.

This will mark the 4th time these two teams have played in the last two seasons, rare for teams not in the same division. In the last 3 games, SF has won all 3, outscoring the Packers 109-81 (an average of 36.3-27). In the last 2, Colin Kaepernick has shredded the Packers' D both on the ground and through the air. With Green Bay's defense being towards the bottom of the league both against the run and pass, I would expect that to continue. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers will have his hands full against a tough Niners' defense. San Fran should continue their dominance against the Packers, even in Lambeau.

Prediction: San Francisco 38 Green Bay 24

KTND NFL PICKS – WILD CARD PLAYOFFS

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Amp: Kansas City

Aaron: Kansas City

Nick: Kansas City

Corey: Kansas City

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Amp: Philadelphia

Aaron: New Orleans

Nick: Philadelphia

Corey: Philadelphia

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS

Amp: Cincinnati

Aaron: Cincinnati

Nick: Cincinnati

Corey: Cincinnati

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS

Amp: Green Bay

Aaron: San Francisco

Nick: Green Bay

Corey: San Francisco