NFL Picks - Divisional Playoffs

by AmplifiedtoRock

KTND NFL PICKS STANDINGS

Aaron the Brain – 63-42

AmplifiedtoRock – 55-50

Nick Gator – 49-56

Corey Santiago – 49-56

It’s time for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.  This is where things get serious, so once again, we give you Aaron the Brain’s thoughts as he handicaps this weekend’s NFL Playoff action.  The crew’s picks are included at the end.

Before we move onto this weekend's slate of games, let's see how I did last week. Straight up: 2-2.  Against the spread: 4-0.  An Andrew Luck miracle and an Andy Dalton meltdown (two things that are prone to happen) kept me from having a perfect weekend. Still, if you bet all my picks against the spread, you had a pretty stellar Wild Card Weekend. Let's keep it going into the Divisional Round!

New Orleans (11-5) @ Seattle (13-3)

Current Spread: Seattle -8

It was 6 weeks ago that these two teams met on a Monday night in Seattle with the driver's seat for home field advantage in the NFC on the line. In that game, the Seahawks completely manhandled the Saints in front of the loudest crowd at a sporting event in history. The Hawks did it with defense, scoring an early defensive TD, and holding the Saints to just 7 points on just 188 yards of offense. And the Hawks did it with offense too. Not only did they run through the Saints to the tune of 127 yards, but Russell Wilson also scorched them through the air with 310 yards and 3 TDs. The Saints looked overwhelmed by the crazy atmosphere as well as the dominant opponent. So how do the Saints expect to change the outcome this time around? Ironically, their biggest key defensively will be to do something they did a decent job of not only in the first game against Seattle, but also last week against Philly. If the Saints are going to have any shot, they will need to stop the run. Despite getting slaughtered the last time they visited the Clink, the Saints actually managed to hold the Seahawks to just 3.3 yards per carry. Last week, the Saints were able to hold the league's most prolific rushing offense to just 3.6 per carry. No team ran the ball a higher percentage of time more than Seattle this season, so if the Saints are going to have a chance, they'll need to start there. After that, they're going to have to figure out a way to do a much better job of pass defense than they did last time in Seattle, which should only be made tougher by the fact that Seattle expects to get back Percy Harvin, which should add an element of explosiveness to the Seahawks offense that they have been missing all year. Ultimately, the Saints will need to do a much better job of applying pressure on Russell Wilson, whom they sacked just once in their prior meeting. I do expect the Saints to give a more inspired effort this time around, and it's hard to expect Drew Brees to struggle as badly as he did against the Legion of Boom last time, but this still feels like a buzzsaw game. The Saints are coming off a tough, emotional, road victory last week, and now they go into the toughest place to play against arguably the most physical team in the league coming off a bye. The Saints D will hang tough early, but they will crack eventually.

Prediction: Seahawks 30 Saints 13

Indianapolis (11-5) @ New England (12-4)

Current Spread: New England -7

The Patriots played the majority of the season without their best receiving threat (Gronk) on offense, without their best defensive lineman (Wilfork), and without their best linebacker (Mayo). They still have Brady and Belichick though, so here they are in the Divisional Round after another 12-4 season in which they earned a bye in the first round. After falling behind 38-10 last week, it looked like the Colts were on their way to their 2nd straight Wild Card round disappointment, but Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton had other ideas. A 35-6 run later, and the Colts are into the 2nd round for the first time in the Andrew Luck era. Despite the touchdown spread, these two teams are very equally matched. Both teams pass more than they run, but when they run the ball fairly effectively. But let's face it, this game is going to be about the quarterbacks. While Brady might be the best ever, Andrew Luck may be budding into the best right now. Both teams do a good job of protecting their signal callers, too. Defense is where the biggest difference lies between these teams, particularly defending the pass. While neither of these teams have figured out how to stop the run, the Pats have done a much better job this season of defending the pass, thanks mainly to Aqib Talib, who should shadow Hilton all game. If Talib can limit Hilton's game changing plays, the pressure will be on Indy's other less touted receivers to step up. When New England has the ball, the Colts will be relying on Robert Mathis to apply consistent pressure on Brady, but without a consistent guy on the other side, expect a lot of double teams. I expect both teams to put up points, but the Patriots will put up more. Still, if you're betting, I'd take the Colts and the points.

Prediction: Patriots 34 Colts 28

San Francisco (12-4) @ Carolina (12-4)

Current Spread: San Francisco -1

A rematch of a November slugfest in which Carolina won 10-9, two of the best defenses, and two of the most dynamic young QBs, face off for a chance to get to the NFC title game. Carolina comes off of a bye week, but their top receiver, Steve Smith, is nursing a sore knee. San Fran, on the other hand, is rolling and getting healthier. In the previous meeting, the 49ers were without Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis on offense, as well as Aldon Smith on defense. While there should be more points scored this time around (it would be hard not to top 19 points), this will still be a defensive struggle. Both of these teams want to run the ball, and both defenses are better than average at stopping the run. What this game will likely come down to is which defense can contain the other team's playmaking QB. Cam Newton has enjoyed a breakout season when it comes to limiting mistakes and engineering game winning drives, but Colin Kaepernick, who was limited to just 91 yards passing (16 rushing) in his first meeting against the Panthers, has been on a tear ever since. Over his last 8 games, Kaepernick has thrown 13 TDs and just 3 INTs. This one will be tight, and I have been going back and forth on it, but San Francisco is rolling, and I just don't know if Carolina has enough firepower on the outside, so I'm taking the Niners. Prediction: 49ers 20 Panthers 17

San Diego (9-7) @ Denver (13-3)

Current Spread: Denver -9

The Chargers have the whole team of destiny feel after winning 4 in a row to get into the playoffs, and dominating the Bengals last week. Then there's that weird stat that the Eagles' last 5 opponents in home openers have gone onto win the Super Bowl. Superstition isn't the only reason to like San Diego this week, though. After all, they've already won in Denver once this year, beating the Broncos 27-20 back in Week 15. Peyton Manning is out to show that playing in bad weather in January isn't his kryptonite. That may be so, but one thing that has proven to give Manning trouble is teams that can run the ball on his defense and keep Manning off the field. That's what happened in Week 15, and it's been a popular and effective strategy for beating Manning in the past. While San Diego will no doubt try to control the game with their running game, Denver could also benefit from utilizing their running game against a soft San Diego defense that has struggled to stop the run all season. Of course, Denver's bread and butter is still Peyton Manning throwing to his talented weapons, and with Wes Welker returning this week (he missed the Week 15 game), Denver also figures to have an advantage over a week San Diego defense. The Chargers will probably put some points on the board, and if they can chew up a lot of clock, this one could be close. I just don't see Peyton Manning going down as a huge home favorite 2 years in a row.

Prediction: Broncos 38 Chargers 24

So to recap... Straight up, I like Seattle, New England, San Francisco, and Denver against the spread and I like Seattle, Indianapolis, San Francisco, and Denver

KTND NFL PICKS – DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Amp: Seattle

Aaron: Seattle

Nick: Seattle

Corey: Seattle

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Amp: New England

Aaron: New England

Nick: New England

Corey: New England

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS

Amp: San Francisco

Aaron: San Francisco

Nick: Carolina

Corey: San Francisco

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS AT DENVER BRONCOS

Amp: Denver

Aaron: Denver

Nick: Denver

Corey: Denver