Aaron the Brain's State of the Dolphins Address

by Aaron the Brain

Just when you started to believe that this team had turned a corner. Just when it looked like maybe, just maybe this team wasn't the overrated mess of mediocrity that their stats suggested they were, the Dolphins did what they have done repeatedly over the past 30 years...broke your heart.

There is no sequence that more epitomizes the last 3 decades of Dolphins football than what transpired the last two weeks. After getting a huge home win (maybe the franchise's biggest in 5 years) over the division leading Patriots to gain control over their own destiny, the Dolphins followed it up with their worst showing of the season, a 19-0 embarrassment to the 6-9 Buffalo Bills.

Aside from the obvious disappointment of getting dominated by an inferior team with the season on the line, this game underscored several of the reasons why the Dolphins are the mediocre team that they are. First, and foremost, this game was decided by one matchup...the Bills' defensive line vs. the Dolphins' offensive line. Despite playing better as of late, the Dolphins' line was exposed as the weak link that it is against the elite D-line of Buffalo. It wasn't just the 7 sacks, but it was the constant pressure on every obvious Dolphins passing down.

Second, while Ryan Tannehill has made strides this season in becoming a solid starting QB, he still has a couple major deficiencies in his game. The obvious one that has been talked about ad nauseam is his lack of deep accuracy, as once again he underthrew Mike Wallace on a long pass that had the potential of becoming a scoring play. The other one, that probably was more egregious today, is Tannehill's apparent reluctance to run the ball. At least 4 times in the first 3 quarters the Dolphins ran the zone read option play. On these plays, Tannehill's job is to read the defense, particularly the defensive ends who are responsible for containing the outside, and decide whether to hand the ball off to his running back on an inside run or to fake the handoff, and instead run outside. Every time Miami ran this play, Buffalo's ends crashed towards the inside, selling out on the inside run, and every time Tannehill still decided to hand the ball off. Those plays all resulted in minimal gains or short losses (Miami rushed for just 14 yards on 12 carries). Tannehill made the wrong reads on these plays, and easily could have had big gains on any one of them had he kept the ball instead. Not only would that have resulted directly in more yards from those specific plays, but it also likely would have forced Buffalo's edge rushers to respect that aspect of the Dolphins' offense, which would have opened more rushing lanes inside for the backs. In addition to the misreads on the semi-designed runs, Tannehill also had a couple opportunities to make plays with his legs on scrambles, but instead elected to make throws on the run. This is tough to get on him for all the time, because there's nothing wrong with a QB looking to make a play downfield with his arm while he's scrambling, but a couple of times Tannehill turned down sure first down runs to instead attempt low percentage passes. He needs to be better at discerning when to take the easy play with his legs, and when to take the shot downfield. In general though, Tannehill doesn't run enough. Despite running for nearly 6 yards per carry this season, and having a 4-game stretch prior to last week in which he ran for 135 yards on 14 carries, Tannehill has run just once over the past two weeks, and only has 38 rushes on the season. He's an athletic guy who played receiver in college and while it is important that he has become a solid pocket passer, it is foolish to not use his athleticism as a weapon. Right now, Ryan Tannehill is a solid starting QB, but he has a ways to go before he's elite, and if he isn't going to be elite, the rest of the team is going to have to be a lot better.

The Dolphins receivers didn't help out much either, and the defense wasn't anything special, but ultimately this loss was on the offensive line and Tannehill because things became elementary for Buffalo's defense. Miami couldn't run the ball up the middle, Tannehill couldn't connect on a deep ball, and Tannehill wasn't keeping on the zone read, so it just became a matter of stopping the Dolphins on first down, and then pinning their ears back and going after the QB. This isn't anything new though. These problems have plagued Miami all year, and today they cost the Dolphins again.

Sure, a lot of things went Miami's way in the 4 o'clock slate of games. Because the Ravens lost, and the Chargers won, the Dolphins still ironically sit as the 6th seed in the AFC, but now to get to the playoffs Miami will not just have to beat the Jets, but also have either the Ravens lose to Cincinnati or have the Chargers beat the Chiefs. Those things could easily happen, so I won't be shocked if Miami still ends up in the postseason, but I don't care, because whether they are in the playoffs or not, it doesn't change the fact that this is not a playoff caliber team.

Ultimately, if things are going to change for the Dolphins, it has to start at the top. Jeff Ireland has built a consistently mediocre team. What's more is that by giving out huge long term contracts this offseason, the team will soon have very little flexibility under the salary cap, meaning that there will be an even bigger onus on the front office to draft well, and that has not been Ireland's strongsuit. This year's draft has been an absolute disaster. In a draft where Miami had 10 picks, they ended up using 9 because they gave one up to move up to draft Dion Jordan, and the only player that has gotten any significant playing time is kicker, Caleb Sturgis. This is just the latest in a string of poor-to-mediocre drafts for Ireland. Yes, Ireland may have found a quality QB in Tannehill, but that alone is hardly worth keeping him.

It's time for a change at GM, and if that means a coaching change as well, so be it. I'm of the opinion that there are a handful of elite head coaches, but by and large it is an interchangeable position because at the height of the NFL, none of these coaches have "a decided strategic advantage" that Charlie Weiss once claimed his Notre Dame teams would possess. Anyone that's considered for a head coaching spot at this level possesses a working knowledge of what it takes to win at this level, and can put together a staff that knows what they're doing as well. Ultimately, one thing is certain. It doesn't matter who the coach is if the talent isn't there. That's why the most important thing is getting a GM in here that knows what he's doing. If he wants to keep Philbin, I'm fine with that. If not, let him choose a replacement.

So, when you're watching the games next week I want you Dolfans to ask yourself "What would be best for the franchise in the long term...to make the playoffs and give Jeff Ireland the affirmation that he did a good job this season, or to miss the playoffs and further put pressure on Stephen Ross to make a change?" I'm not saying that Ross will certainly fire Ireland if the Dolphins miss out on the postseason, but at the very least it will move him further onto the proverbial hot seat, meaning the Dolphins would be a little bit closer to going the right direction.