The NBA Playoffs start today, so here's how I see the first round panning out...
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Miami vs (8) Milwaukee
Regular Season Series: Miami won 3-1
Summary: There's a reason you would have to bet $20,000 on Miami to win $100. Aside from being the prohibitive favorite to win it all, Miami is better than Milwaukee in virtually every category. They even have a better rebound rate. Milwaukee's only chance is to win turnovers, rebounds, and 3's. Even still, I don't like their chances to win more than a game.
Prediction: Miami in 4.
(2) New York vs (7) Boston
Regular Season: Knicks won 3-1
Summary: The Knicks haven't won a playoff series in 13 years, but this is the first time in that span that they've been the favorites. Boston is never an easy out, though, and if the Knicks don't defend and learn how to pass the ball they will be in for a dog fight. Ultimately, if Carmelo keeps shooting the way he has over the last few weeks, the Knicks probably have too much scoring for Boston to keep up with, but don't count out the Celtics.
Prediction: Knicks in 7.
(3) Indiana vs (6) Atlanta
Regular Season: Tied 2-2
Summary: For a while there, the Pacers were making a case for being called elite. In a span of 28 games from the end of January to the beginning of April, they won 22 of 28 games. Then they proceeded to limp down the stretch and fall short of 50 wins. Still, Indiana is certainly a threat to make a deep run in the playoffs. They led the league in both defensive efficiency and rebound rate. Atlanta was also a top-10 defensive team, but was one of the worst rebounding teams in the league this season. Both teams are marginal, at best, offensively, so I expect this to be a series of low-scoring games, despite them having some higher scoring games in the regular season series. If there's one area Atlanta may have an advantage, it's shooting 3's. Atlanta was 7th in the league in 3-point percentage in the regular season, shooting 37%, and in the 4 games against Indiana this season, they averaged 8 threes a game at 38%. Still, I like the Pacers' defense and rebounding.
Prediction: Pacers in 6.
(4) Brooklyn vs. (5) Chicago
Regular Season: Bulls win 3-1
Summary: The Bulls took 3 of 4 in the regular season, but all but one of the 4 games came were tight, and that's how I expect this series to play out. This is a classic matchup of offense vs. defense, as the Nets have a top-10 offense and the Bulls have a top-5 defense. Furthermore, both teams are really good rebounding teams as well, neither team shoots the 3 particularly well, and both teams are relatively similar in turnover ratio. So, this one will come down simply to which team makes shots at the end of games. Brooklyn, with Joe Johnson, Derron Williams, and Brook Lopez probably have an edge there.
Prediction: Nets in 7.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Oklahoma City vs (8) Houston
Regular Season: Thunder wins 2-1
Summary: This is billed as James Harden vs. his old team, and that will make this fun to watch, but the only chance Houston has is if Harden's teammates give him a considerable amount of help. Omer Asik is probably the most important piece of Houston's supporting cast, because Houston will need to win the battle on the boards. Still, this will likely be a series played at a break-neck pace with lots of scoring, and while Houston enjoys that pace, it actually favors OKC more, because they are the more efficient team.
Prediction: Thunder win in 5.
(2) San Antonio vs. (7) LA Lakers
Regular Season: Spurs win 2-1
Summary: It appears that both Steve Nash and Manu Ginobli will play in Game 1. It will be interesting to see how the Lakers look without Kobe, but with Nash, Howard, and Gasol. The Spurs won 2 of the 3 matchups in the regular season, but the Lakers won a must-win game last week without Kobe or Nash. With Nash, Howard, and Gasol running pick n' rolls all over the floor, the Lakers may have a shot in this series. The question is whether they can play enough defense over the course of the series. The Spurs aren't without their own questions. Neither Parker or Ginobli appear to be 100% coming into the series, and Duncan will have his hands full against Howard and Gasol. Kawhi Leonard may be the key to the series.
Prediction: Spurs in 6.
(3) Denver vs (6) Golden State
Regular Season: Nuggets win 3-1
Summary: These are two of the most fun teams to watch in the entire league, so I am looking forward to watching this one. Injuries are definitely hindering the Nuggets, though. Already without Danilo Galinari for the rest of the season, Kenneth Faried's status is also in doubt. That could level the playing field in an area where Denver has one of it's biggest advantages - offensive rebounding. If Faried isn't at 100%, Golden State may actually be the better rebounding team. Ty Lawson is also coming off an injury, and says he's 100% despite not playing much over the last few weeks. Look for Golden State to let it fly from beyond the arc, led by Steph Curry. The Warriors shot over 40% from 3 this season, and if they are gonna pull the upset, that will be the key.
Prediction: Nuggets in 7.
(4) LA Clippers vs (5) Memphis
Regular Season: Clippers win 3-1
Summary: Both of these teams enter the playoffs with championship aspirations, and one will exit with a bitter first round defeat. Last year the two played to a 7-game series, which the Clippers came away with. Both teams play great defense, but the Clippers are far and away better offensively, despite Memphis' improved play since the Rudy Gay trade. The question is whether Memphis has a guy to go to in the crunch. We know the Clippers can go to Chris Paul, and ultimately that's the difference.
Prediction: Clippers in 7.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Miami vs (8) Milwaukee
Regular Season Series: Miami won 3-1
Summary: There's a reason you would have to bet $20,000 on Miami to win $100. Aside from being the prohibitive favorite to win it all, Miami is better than Milwaukee in virtually every category. They even have a better rebound rate. Milwaukee's only chance is to win turnovers, rebounds, and 3's. Even still, I don't like their chances to win more than a game.
Prediction: Miami in 4.
(2) New York vs (7) Boston
Regular Season: Knicks won 3-1
Summary: The Knicks haven't won a playoff series in 13 years, but this is the first time in that span that they've been the favorites. Boston is never an easy out, though, and if the Knicks don't defend and learn how to pass the ball they will be in for a dog fight. Ultimately, if Carmelo keeps shooting the way he has over the last few weeks, the Knicks probably have too much scoring for Boston to keep up with, but don't count out the Celtics.
Prediction: Knicks in 7.
(3) Indiana vs (6) Atlanta
Regular Season: Tied 2-2
Summary: For a while there, the Pacers were making a case for being called elite. In a span of 28 games from the end of January to the beginning of April, they won 22 of 28 games. Then they proceeded to limp down the stretch and fall short of 50 wins. Still, Indiana is certainly a threat to make a deep run in the playoffs. They led the league in both defensive efficiency and rebound rate. Atlanta was also a top-10 defensive team, but was one of the worst rebounding teams in the league this season. Both teams are marginal, at best, offensively, so I expect this to be a series of low-scoring games, despite them having some higher scoring games in the regular season series. If there's one area Atlanta may have an advantage, it's shooting 3's. Atlanta was 7th in the league in 3-point percentage in the regular season, shooting 37%, and in the 4 games against Indiana this season, they averaged 8 threes a game at 38%. Still, I like the Pacers' defense and rebounding.
Prediction: Pacers in 6.
(4) Brooklyn vs. (5) Chicago
Regular Season: Bulls win 3-1
Summary: The Bulls took 3 of 4 in the regular season, but all but one of the 4 games came were tight, and that's how I expect this series to play out. This is a classic matchup of offense vs. defense, as the Nets have a top-10 offense and the Bulls have a top-5 defense. Furthermore, both teams are really good rebounding teams as well, neither team shoots the 3 particularly well, and both teams are relatively similar in turnover ratio. So, this one will come down simply to which team makes shots at the end of games. Brooklyn, with Joe Johnson, Derron Williams, and Brook Lopez probably have an edge there.
Prediction: Nets in 7.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Oklahoma City vs (8) Houston
Regular Season: Thunder wins 2-1
Summary: This is billed as James Harden vs. his old team, and that will make this fun to watch, but the only chance Houston has is if Harden's teammates give him a considerable amount of help. Omer Asik is probably the most important piece of Houston's supporting cast, because Houston will need to win the battle on the boards. Still, this will likely be a series played at a break-neck pace with lots of scoring, and while Houston enjoys that pace, it actually favors OKC more, because they are the more efficient team.
Prediction: Thunder win in 5.
(2) San Antonio vs. (7) LA Lakers
Regular Season: Spurs win 2-1
Summary: It appears that both Steve Nash and Manu Ginobli will play in Game 1. It will be interesting to see how the Lakers look without Kobe, but with Nash, Howard, and Gasol. The Spurs won 2 of the 3 matchups in the regular season, but the Lakers won a must-win game last week without Kobe or Nash. With Nash, Howard, and Gasol running pick n' rolls all over the floor, the Lakers may have a shot in this series. The question is whether they can play enough defense over the course of the series. The Spurs aren't without their own questions. Neither Parker or Ginobli appear to be 100% coming into the series, and Duncan will have his hands full against Howard and Gasol. Kawhi Leonard may be the key to the series.
Prediction: Spurs in 6.
(3) Denver vs (6) Golden State
Regular Season: Nuggets win 3-1
Summary: These are two of the most fun teams to watch in the entire league, so I am looking forward to watching this one. Injuries are definitely hindering the Nuggets, though. Already without Danilo Galinari for the rest of the season, Kenneth Faried's status is also in doubt. That could level the playing field in an area where Denver has one of it's biggest advantages - offensive rebounding. If Faried isn't at 100%, Golden State may actually be the better rebounding team. Ty Lawson is also coming off an injury, and says he's 100% despite not playing much over the last few weeks. Look for Golden State to let it fly from beyond the arc, led by Steph Curry. The Warriors shot over 40% from 3 this season, and if they are gonna pull the upset, that will be the key.
Prediction: Nuggets in 7.
(4) LA Clippers vs (5) Memphis
Regular Season: Clippers win 3-1
Summary: Both of these teams enter the playoffs with championship aspirations, and one will exit with a bitter first round defeat. Last year the two played to a 7-game series, which the Clippers came away with. Both teams play great defense, but the Clippers are far and away better offensively, despite Memphis' improved play since the Rudy Gay trade. The question is whether Memphis has a guy to go to in the crunch. We know the Clippers can go to Chris Paul, and ultimately that's the difference.
Prediction: Clippers in 7.
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