NBA Boring Time

By Aaron the Brain

Now that the joke that was All-Star Weekend is behind us, the NBA hits its stretch run towards the post-season. In sports like baseball, football, and hockey, the stretch run is exciting because as teams vie to make the playoffs, fans know that any team that gets into the postseason tournament has a viable shot at winning a championship. That is not the case in the NBA, where typically there are only 5-8 teams, of the 16 that make it, that have a realistic shot at winning it all. In some years, it doesn't even seem like there are that many. This year may be one of those, as it seems there is a clear drop off after the top 4 teams in the league. Still, I'll give you a run down of the teams I believe to be contenders, pretenders, and dark horses as the NBA's month and a half stretch run towards their two month postseason begins.

CONTENDERS

Miami (40-14) - The Heat coasted through the first third or so of the season, with an apparent championship hangover. That hangover is behind them. They have won 11 in a row, including a stretch over the last 5 in which they won 4 in a row on the road, 3 against teams that will make the playoffs, and last night's win gave Miami their 4th victory in 5 nights. LeBron James is having arguably the greatest season in the NBA's modern era. Dwyane Wade, despite the notion that he's on the decline, appears to be fully healthy for the first time in a year and a half, and is still arguably a top-5 player in the league. Chris Bosh, who often gets overshadowed by his higher profile teammates, is the best PF/C in the Eastern Conference, and his having the best shooting year of his career. Add in the fact that Miami's defense (11th in defensive efficiency) and rebounding (19th in rebound rate) have been steadily improving, and Miami's 3 biggest role-players (Ray Allen, Shane Battier, and Mario Chalmers) are all shooting over 41% from beyond the arc, and Miami is looking better than they did last year when they won it all.

San Antonio (45-13) - The Spurs are the model of consistency. Regardless of the age, and declining play, of Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobli, the Spurs keep managing to stay elite because of the outstanding play of Tony Parker, and the infusion of young talent that they have groomed over the past 2-3 seasons. This could be just another Spurs team that plays great in the regular season before falling to a lower seeded team in the playoffs, as they have done each of the last two years. However, this team intrigues me because while they changed their style prior to the 2010-2011 season to be more offensive oriented, their 98.1 points given up per possession this season (3rd best in the league) is the best they have been defensively since 2007-08.

Oklahoma City (41-15) - There's no doubt that OKC is an elite team. Even after trading James Harden prior to the season, they still have the best average point differential in the league (+9.1) as well as the best efficiency differential (+10.5). Still, when I watch them I don't come away overly impressed. Despite their excellent offensive efficiency numbers, they still don't seem to run much of a half court offense. Instead, they rely almost entirely on three things - fast break points, Westbrook or Durant in isolation, or Westbrook or Durant getting to the free throw line. Sure, they do these things well. Westbrook has arguably the quickest first step in the league, and often breaks down defenses with his dribble penetration. Durant is the second best player, and arguably the best scorer, in the league, and both do a tremendous job of attacking the basket, getting foul calls, and hitting their free throws when they get there. I just question whether they can beat teams like the Clippers, Spurs, and Heat, who not only have the offense to keep up with them, but also play great defense.

LA Clippers (40-18) - The Clips went through a rough stretch when Chris Paul was out with an injury from the end of January through early February. They lost 6 of 9 without him in that stretch, and got demolished in Miami in his first game back from injury, when he managed just 3 points and 2 assists in 20 minutes. Since then however, they seem to have found their way again. They have now won 6 of their last 7, all by double digits, since losing to Miami. What may be troubling for Clippers' fans, though, is that their lone loss in that stretch was a 26-point home loss to the Spurs last Thursday, the same team that swept them out of the playoffs last season. The Clippers did beat the Spurs in their first two matchups this season, but they were both back in November, so it remains to be seen if the Spurs just have their number. The Clippers have also lost both of their matchups with OKC this season.

PRETENDERS

Indiana (35-21) - The Pacers are an intriguing team because aside from being the best defensive team in the league, and leading the league in rebounding rate, they have played all season without Danny Granger, whom most regarded as their best player coming into the season and just returned on Saturday. Personally, I'm not a fan of Granger. His FG% has dropped every year since he's been in the league (with the exception of shooting 44.6% '07-'08 and 44.7% in '08-'09), and he doesn't really create for anyone else on the team. However, I won't argue that he's a huge upgrade offensively over Lance Stephenson, and with Paul George taking over as the team's top option, he could be more efficient once he rounds into shape. Furthermore, because of the way the Pacers' size, and the way they defend and rebound, they are exactly the kind of team that can give the Heat trouble in the East. Still, I find it hard to buy into a team whose best four players are Paul George, Danny Granger, David West, and Roy Hibbert, and who don't have a particularly good bench, especially when they got beat in 6 to a Miami team without Chris Bosh last season.

New York (33-20) - If it weren't for an 18-5 start, and a pair of early season blowouts over the Heat, I probably wouldn't even mention the Knicks in this article. The truth is that the Knicks aren't even really close to any of the contenders, and it has shown in their 15-15 record over their last 30 games. The Knicks can score in bunches, because they shoot a lot of 3's, and when they are hot they can beat anyone, but they are only average defensively and are only an average rebounding team, and despite their excellent offensive efficiency rating, they have one of the lowest assist ratios in the league, because they, similar to OKC, rely on a lot of isolation in their halfcourt offense. Unfortunately for the Knicks, Melo isn't as good as Durant, and neither Raymond Felton nor JR Smith is even close to Russell Westbrook. This is a recipe for losing in the playoffs when they face better defenses.

Memphis (37-18) - Many thought that Memphis would fall off severely after trading Rudy Gay to Toronto. They did struggle initially after the trade, but they have now won 7 in a row, albeit against a bit of a soft schedule. They probably aren't quite as equipped to make a deep run this year without Gay, but they still are an elite defensive team that can pound teams on the boards with their size. Still, while they can pose matchup problems to the top 3 teams in the West, they simply do not have the scoring punch to keep up with San Antonio, OKC, and the Clippers, who are all also top-10 defensive teams.

DARK HORSES

Chicago (32-24) - Don't forget that the Bulls had the best record in the East the past two seasons, and they are still one of the best defensive teams in the league, and they can rebound with anyone. If Derrick Rose comes back, and is "110%" they are a real threat to the Heat. They would essentially be a better version of the Pacers. The Heat would still be better, but the Bulls pose the size and physicality that gives Miami trouble, and Rose not only can create his own shot, but makes players like Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, and Carlos Boozer more efficient as well.


LA Lakers (28-29) - If the season ended today, the Lakers wouldn't even make the playoffs. Truth be told, they probably are more likely to miss the playoffs than make them at this point. So I'm sure it seems crazy to have them listed as a darkhorse, which I consider a team that could potentially be a title contender. It may be that I am grasping at straws in order to defend my preseason pick to win the West, but it looks like the Lakers have finally begun to figure things out. After all of the injuries, coaching changes, bickering to the media, and other drama that resulted in a 17-25 start, the Lakers have now won 11 of their last 15 games and with Dwight Howard apparently back in shape, it wouldn't surprise me if the Lakers caught either Utah or Golden State to sneak into the playoffs. Granted, to get there, LA will likely have to win 18-20 of their final 27 games, but if they get there, nobody will want to face them.