KTND NFL PICKS STANDINGS
Aaron
the Brain – 64-42
AmplifiedtoRock
– 56-50
Nick
Gator – 49-57
Corey
Santiago – 50-56
It
isn't often that when we get to the conference championship weekend that the 4
teams left are the consensus best teams in the league, but that is exactly the
case. All season long, the Broncos and Patriots have been the class of the AFC.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks were atop the NFC standings from start to finish this
season, and while Carolina had a great season, they went into their game
against the 49ers last week as a home underdog, which speaks volumes of who the
public considered the better team.
These
games are being billed as polar opposites. There's the "Legacy Game"
in the AFC, in which Tom Brady and Peyton Manning go head-to-head in the
postseason for the 4th time, as each tries to accomplish something legendary.
For Brady, it's the opportunity to start at QB in a record 6th Super Bowl, and potentially
win a record-tying 4th. For Manning, it's a chance to become the 3rd QB to take
two different teams to a Super Bowl, and potentially the first to win with two
different teams. The other game is being billed as an ugly, slugfest between
two teams who hate each other and who are considered the two most physical
teams in the league. So let's get to the analysis, shall we?
New England @ Denver
Current Spread: Denver -5
This
will be Brady-Manning XV, and Brady has been the victor in 10 of the 14 previous
matchups, including a 2-1 record in the 3 postseason matchups between the 2,
but I'm not a big fan of applying stats from a decade ago to a game played in 2
days. There isn't much that can be carried over from games played between these
two when Peyton was a Colt. However, these two players (and most importantly,
teams) did play earlier this season. In a game played in cold, nasty weather,
neither team played near their best. Three first quarter fumbles by the
Patriots were turned into 17 points by Denver, and the lead ballooned to 24-0
by the half. In the 2nd half, Tom Brady set the tone with a TD drive to open
the 3rd quarter, and the Broncos gave New England the opportunities they needed
to come back by turning the ball over three times of their own, including a
costly one in overtime when a short punt bounced off of Tony Carter and was
recovered by New England to set up their game-winning score in OT. It's hard to
know what to take out of such a crazy game, but a few things were very telling.
In
a game played in frigid temperature, the Broncos did most of their damage on
the ground, rushing for an astounding 280 yards on perhaps an even more
astounding (for a Peyton Manning offense) 48 carries. The Patriots consistently
dropped 7 or 8 into coverage, daring Manning to check to running plays at the
line of scrimmage, and time after time Manning took what the Patriots gave him,
and while the Broncos amassed a ton of yardage on the ground, when the Patriots
stopped turning the ball over the Broncos struggled to score. That's because
when Manning went to pass into the Patriots defense, he didn't find much
success. Manning finished the game 19/36 for just 150 yards. This isn't the
first time this strategy has worked against Manning. The Patriots routinely used
this strategy when Peyton was in Indianapolis and didn't have much of a running
game to speak of, and the Jets used the same strategy to knock off Peyton and
the Colts back in 2010. The only way the Broncos can make this strategy pay off
is if they can run the ball effectively and consistently, and make the most of
their red zone opportunities. One thing that bodes well for Denver is that the
Patriots have been one of the worst teams in the league at defending the run,
so there's no reason to believe Denver won't have similar success running the
ball this time around...unless New England unexpectedly changes their game
plan.
Last
week New England threw a curve ball by running the ball on 46 of 73 plays for
234 yards in a game similarly billed as a battle of elite QBs. However, in the
game against Denver earlier this year they ran on just 31 of 83 plays for an
okay but not great 116 yards. Much of that was probably due to the fact that
they fell behind by so much, but it's hard to ignore that Brady completed over
80% of his passes in the 2nd half for nearly 9 yards per attempt. That wasn't
an aberration, as for much of the year the Broncos were one of the worst pass
defenses in the league. However, they have improved recently. Over their final
3 games of the regular season, the Broncos pass defense allowed an average of
just 5.3 yards per pass attempt, and despite struggling late last week against
the Chargers, they did hold Philip Rivers to just 45 yards passing on 12
attempts in the first 3 quarters. If the Broncos do decide to be more balanced
this time around, they will also have to deal with an underrated Broncos' run
defense that has actually been one of the best in the league this season.
It's
ironic, but in a game in which everyone will be focused on the quarterbacks,
much of this game will be decided by which team can establish their running
game and stop the other team from doing so. Of course, if there are turnovers,
they could also go a long way in telling the story. In this rivalry, it's
usually been Manning that makes the bigger mistakes, but this time around if he
can trust his running game and his defense, and make the plays when they are
there, he has the better team. So he should come out on top. I'm not a fan of
giving the Patriots 5 points, though.
Prediction:
Broncos 24 Patriots 20
San Francisco @ Seattle
Current Spread: Seattle -3.5
The
last two times the 49ers have played in Seattle, they've been outscored 71-16,
including getting dominated 29-3 back in Week 2 this season. Seattle's defense
is for real, and they've been downright nasty at home. However, if there's one
area where they could be exploited, its in the run game. While Seattle was the
league's best pass defense this year, giving up just 5.4 yards per attempt,
they were merely pretty good against the run. While it isn't like they've been
gashed, it should be noted that they and the Carolina Panthers each gave up 3.9
yards per rushing attempt this season, and the 49ers ran up 126 yards on
Carolina's rush defense last week. Even in their loss in Seattle, the Niners
managed to run for 100 yards on 20 carries. If San Fran is going to have any chance
in this one, they are going to have to do what they weren't able to do back in
Week 2, which is avoid turning the ball over. In that meeting, the Seahawks
forced 5 turnovers, which they turned into 13 points. Their defense also got on
the board with a safety. In a game where points will be at a premium, any
defensive score, or score set up a turnover could be fatal.
San
Francisco's offense has been much better over their current 8 game winning
streak, which has coincided with the return of Michael Crabtree. However,
Seattle won't need to be overly concerned with Crabtree, as their corners
matchup well with both Crabtree and Anquan Boldin. The question is whether
Seattle generate offense on their end. For the Hawks, their offense revolves
around the physical running of Marshawn Lynch, who holds 3 of the 4 highest
rushing totals in a game against SF over the past 3 seasons. In Week 2, Lynch
ran for 98 yards and 2 TDs on 28 carries against San Francisco's defense.
In
this game, which will be billed as two physical teams who will slug it out in
the trenches, the game will likely be decided by which quarterback plays
better, which will probably mean the quarterback who doesn't turn the ball
over. I expect this game to be close, and low-scoring, and to be decided by
turnover margin. This season, no team had a better turnover margin at home than
the Seahawks, so I'm taking the Hawks at home.
Prediction:
Seattle 16 San Francisco 12
KTND NFL PICKS – CONFERENCE
CHAMPIONSHIPS
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Amp:
Seattle
Aaron:
Seattle
Nick:
Seattle
Corey:
San Francisco
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT DENVER BRONCOS
Amp:
Denver
Aaron:
Denver
Nick:
Denver
Corey:
Denver
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